On Sunday, February 2, 2025, Punxsutawney Phil will crawl out from his tiny tree trunk and predict whether there will be another 6 weeks of winter. Considering that the legendary groundhog has been forecasting the weather since the first Groundhog Day in 1887, it seems safe to assume that he’s gotten pretty good at it by now. The stats, however, indicate that practice doesn’t always make perfect when it comes to mid-sized meteorological rodents. As Live Science reported, the Groundhog Club’s records show that as of 2024, Phil has predicted more winter 108 times, and an early spring just 21 times. There are 9 years without any records at all. Based on data from the Stormfax Almanac, that means Phil’s accuracy rate is an abysmal 39%. If you only look at weather records dating back to 1969 — which are more reliable than earlier accounts — Phil’s job performance review gets even worse: those predictions were correct only 36% of the time. Phil isn’t the only weather-predicting animal out there. In 2025, NOAA decided to see how Phil did compared to the competition based on their predictions from the past 20 years and he ended up near the bottom of the pile. Even taxidermied groundhogs performed better. While Phil is far from infallible, human meteorologists are, too. As National Weather Service meteorologist David Unger told Live Science, “If our forecasts are about 60% accurate or higher, then we consider that to be a good estimate.”
How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day Weather Predictions?
On Sunday, February 2, 2025, Punxsutawney Phil will crawl out from his tiny tree trunk and predict whether there will be another 6 weeks of winter. Considering that the legendary groundhog has been forecasting the weather since the first Groundhog Day in 1887, it seems safe to assume that he’s gotten pretty good at it by now. The stats, however, indicate that practice doesn’t always make perfect when it comes to mid-sized meteorological rodents. As Live Science reported, the Groundhog Club’s records show that as of 2024, Phil has predicted more winter 108 times, and an early spring just 21 times. There are 9 years without any records at all. Based on data from the Stormfax Almanac, that means Phil’s accuracy rate is an abysmal 39%. If you only look at weather records dating back to 1969 — which are more reliable than earlier accounts — Phil’s job performance review gets even worse: those predictions were correct only 36% of the time. Phil isn’t the only weather-predicting animal out there. In 2025, NOAA decided to see how Phil did compared to the competition based on their predictions from the past 20 years and he ended up near the bottom of the pile. Even taxidermied groundhogs performed better. While Phil is far from infallible, human meteorologists are, too. As National Weather Service meteorologist David Unger told Live Science, “If our forecasts are about 60% accurate or higher, then we consider that to be a good estimate.”