When looking back at history, there’s a pattern where people didn’t expect that the worst possible outcome could happen. In World War II, Parisians were shocked over the invasion of France, not believing war was imminent, despite the fact that the Germans were pushing toward their border. People believed the Titanic wouldn’t sink, to the point that they didn’t include enough life rafts. It’s all explained by what’s called “normalcy bias.” Normalcy bias — also called “the ostrich effect” — is the belief that nothing is wrong and everything is status quo. At one point or another, we have all experienced this on some level. Normalcy bias is what keeps people from panicking, but it also keeps them from taking direct action to prevent things from happening. The opposite of normalcy bias is “worst-case bias” — an overreaction that causes you to expect the worst to happen. That’s why it’s good to strike a balance between normalcy bias and worst-case bias. We need to be aware of situations and follow experts’ advice, while also knowing where to draw the line.
